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☆ The case for a career in bond investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

I sensed familiarity with the recent fate of fixed income benchmarks such as Austria’s hundred-year government bond. For this reason, when bond yields are low, the sensitivity of capital prices to inflation and interest rate shocks is high, and vice versa. The appreciating greenback has been a drag on much of the global fixed income universe for the past decade. The real reason to go into fixed income investing, I explained, is that you get to tell governments what to do. Now that the end of monetary anaesthesia has awoken fixed income from its 15-year coma, I told the MBA students, you’ve got your chance.

Persons: Bonds, That’s, Torsten Slok, GMO’s, Liz Truss, ”, Bill Clinton’s, James Carville, you’ve, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S ., JPMorgan, Economist, UK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Venezuela

[1/3] A state oil company PDVSA's logo is seen at a gas station in Caracas, Venezuela May 17, 2019. The restrictions were removed in response to a deal reached between the country's government and opposition parties for the 2024 election. JPMorgan's index team, which has made no statement as yet on the future treatment of the Venezuelan bonds, has reached out informally to investors to discuss the topic, the sources said. Venezuela and PDVSA have around $60 billion of international bonds outstanding, which are in default. The decision on index membership and weighting is taken by JPMorgan, though any changes usually follow consultations with investors.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Christina Fincher, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Caracas, Venezuela, United States, PDVSA, Washington

Zambia was the first African country to default in the COVID-19 era, in late 2020, but its restructuring process has been beset by delays. International bondholders also complained they were left out of the process, which started with drawn-out negotiations with bilateral creditors including China. Zambia's three international bonds rose sharply after the announcement, adding as much as 3.9 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb and MarketAxess data showed. The committee of bondholders owns or controls 40% of the outstanding bonds, Zambia's finance ministry added. Earlier this month, Zambia agreed a memorandum of understanding with its official creditors, including China and members of the Paris Club of creditor nations, to restructure about $6.3 billion of debt.

Persons: Situmbeko Musokotwane, Susana Vera, amortization, Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Bhargav Acharya, David Holmes Organizations: Zambia's, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, IMF, Bondholder, Amia, Amundi, RBC BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock Capital Management, Paris Club, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, JOHANNESBURG, Zambia, China, Rosario

☆ Larger Italian banks still seen paying one-off tax despite opt-out offer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Valentina Za | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The government sparked a market rout last month with the surprise announcement of a 40% tax on the profits banks are reaping from rising interest rates. The option would benefit banks that hold a higher proportion of Italian government bonds among their assets relative to loans. Banca Akros and broker Equita also expect most banks to pay the tax. Equita also said paying the levy would allow lenders to maintain more flexibility over their remuneration policy. Switching the tax basis to risk-weighted assets helps banks which have a lower 'risk density', meaning the average risk weight per unit of exposure.

Persons: Jennifer Lorenzini, Equita, Akros, Siena, Valentina Za, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Generale, Banca Akros, ICCREA, Bank, Banca Generali, Thomson Locations: Monte dei, Siena, Italy, Italy's

Below are five charts showing what's been moved and/or shaken:1/SHOCK FOR THE STOCKSMSCI's 24-country emerging markets (EM) stocks index (.MSCIEF) is down 6% this month. It is still up for the year, though well below the 13.5% gain this year for MSCI's main global index, which has benefited from a boom in U.S. "mega-cap" stocks. "The markets that have underperformed are the lower-yielding markets like Asia," Mike Arno, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said. "The market doesn't seem to think that China is a major threat," said Aegon Asset Management's head of EM debt, Jeff Grills. Reuters Graphics5/OUT OF AFRICAThe other big trouble spot has been Africa, where debt markets have seen a sharp pullback.

Persons: Jason Lee, what's, Tayyip Erdogan's, Katherine Marney, Mike Arno, Jeff, Erdogan, Van Eck's, Eric Fine, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, Marc Jones, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, JPMorgan, Brandywine, FX, HK, EMBI, abrdn, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Africa, MIWD00000PUS, Hungary, America, Brazil, Argentina, Asia, TURKEY, Gabon, Niger, JPMorgan's Africa, London, New York

Many investors think that will only happen if interest rates go to levels just too high for investors to pass up. "You wonder whether they have left it too late" said Mikhail Volodchenko at one of Europe's largest fund managers AXA IM. Reuters Graphics4/LOCAL PROBLEMSIn contrast to the dollar bonds, Turkey's 'local' lira-denominated bonds have had a shocker. Even if the lira is taken out of the equation the bonds are still down around 13% since Erdogan's election win. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8920 euros)Reporting by Marc Jones and Canan Sevgili Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Şimşek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mikhail Volodchenko, Enver Erkan, Yatirim, Treasuries, COVID, Wednesday Erdogan, Simon Lue, Fong, Vontobel, Turkey's, Jeff, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe, Marc Jones, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: LONDON, AXA, Reuters, JPMorgan EMBI Global, NATO, Investment, Wednesday, United Arab Emirates, JPMorgan GBI, Street Global Markets, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Central, Turkish, Nigeria, Argentina, Turkey, U.S, Arab, Swiss, Lira

☆ Analysis: Debt crunch looms for weaker economies with a wall of bond maturities ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"A more prolonged period without market access would be of more concern for the lower-rated tiers of the emerging markets sovereign universe," said James Wilson, EM sovereign strategist for ING. Tapping international debt markets hasn't been a problem across the board for emerging economies. The JPMorgan's emerging markets bond index (EMBI) for high yield debt is at 900 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, and has largely remained over 800 bps since the beginning of last year. The Russia conflict and then the Fed hiking cycle led to higher spreads for a much longer period," said Gregory Smith, emerging markets fund manager at London-based M&G Investment. A weaker U.S. dollar should help countries to tap international markets in the medium term, but recent data fueled jitters that restrictive central bank policies could push the global economy into recession.

Feb 7 (Reuters) - Emerging market bond and equity funds received heavy inflows in January after a dry patch last year, aided by China's reopening and softening inflation pressures worldwide. According to Refinitiv Lipper data, which covers over 33,700 emerging market (EM) funds, EM equity funds received $13.2 billion, and EM bond funds obtained $11.36 billion in January. Fund flows: EM equities and bondsIn 2022, EM bond funds faced a combined net outflow of $26.26 billion. In January, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF received $3.2 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively, while iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund; Inst obtained over $1 billion each. Initial euphoria over China's reopening has fizzled out and EM assets have seen slight declines in February.

The cedi has lost more than 50% of its value this year , pushing up the cost of Ghana's external debt. Interest payments alone absorb between 70 and 100% of the government's revenuesHOW BIG IS GHANA'S DEBT? Ghana's public debt was 467.4 billion cedis ($37.4 billion) in September, of which 42% was domestic debt, according to the most recent central bank figures released last month. Ghana's debt-to-GDPWHO OWNS GHANA'S DEBT? The fund is yet to comment on Ghana's debt sustainability or domestic bond exchange plans.

☆ New Pakistan finance minister vows to tame inflation and cut interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pakistan's likely new Finance Minister Ishaq Dar walks upon his arrival at the Nur Khan military airbase in Chaklala, Rawalpindi, Pakistan September 26, 2022. "We will control inflation," Dar told reporters in televised comments after he was sworn in. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We will bring interest rates down," he said. WRECKED ECONOMYDar, a senior politician in the ruling party of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, flew to Islamabad on Monday night after ending five years in self-exile in London. "I wasn't able to travel for the last four years," he added, describing the legal action against him as political victimisation by the previous government of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

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